Macroeconomic Overview – July 2026
Macroeconomic Overview – July 2026
In Vietnam, the macroeconomic picture remained positive, with a clear recovery in the manufacturing sector. The Industrial Production Index (IIP) surged 14.5% YoY in July. Meanwhile, the PMI reached 52.9, the highest level since February 2026, supported by improvements in output and new orders, while cost pressures eased. FDI remained a core growth driver. In 7M2026, registered FDI reached USD 38.1bn, while disbursed FDI increased to USD 15.2bn, marking a five-year high. Inflation also continued to ease, with July CPI declining to 4.45% YoY, driven by lower transportation and housing costs. This brought average inflation for the first seven months to 4.39%, close to the 4.5% target.
However, several areas of the economy warrant monitoring. The trade deficit widened to USD 20.5bn in the first seven months of the year, the highest YTD deficit in nearly two decades, as demand for production inputs and intermediate goods surged. Public investment disbursement reached 41.9% of the annual plan, 3.6 percentage points higher than the corresponding period in 2025; however, the remaining disbursement volume is still substantial, requiring efforts to accelerate execution during the final five months of the year.
In the monetary market, the USD/VND exchange rate remained relatively stable, while interbank interest rates and funding pressures remained elevated. The equity market reflected heightened risk aversion as the VN-Index corrected sharply, falling 8.4% to 1,704.7 points in July. The main drivers of the decline included prolonged foreign outflows, margin pressure, tighter domestic liquidity, and external uncertainties.
To access the full set of data, illustrative charts, and in-depth analysis by sector, please refer to the attached file: English
